Goldman Sachs economists predict that US GDP would face a hit if Donald Trump wins the election, due to tariffs and tighter immigration policies.

If Trump wins, GDP could see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage points in the second half of next year, with effects abating by 2026.

If Kamala Harris wins and Democrats control both chambers of Congress, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly boost GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.

A Trump administration would likely reduce immigration to 1.25 million or 750,000 a year if Republicans take Congress, while a Harris administration would oversee a slowdown to 1.5 million a year.

Trump's likely tariff hikes on China, the EU, and Mexico would lead to an inflationary bump, with a peak impact of 30 to 40 basis points on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge.